| Historical and Recent Past Period Drought | | | | evident in the decreasing depths of the |
| Data is very valuable to predicting future | | | | mountain snows that pile up each winter, in |
| trends and cycles. By doing this we can | | | | the un-seasonal winter rainfalls that drench |
| prepare for crisis by building adequate water | | | | the mountains instead of snow, and in the |
| resources and monitoring our fresh water | | | | speed of the snowmelt during spring. Total |
| supplies. It is important to understand all | | | | precipitation over California hasn't changed |
| the regional dynamics in order to make good | | | | significantly on average over the years, but |
| non-linear decisions to insure our | | | | seasonal variations between rain and snow |
| civilization has what it needs. This data is | | | | show that a significant warming trend is |
| from 2002.If you think the US is having | | | | under way. But the population increase has, |
| problems look at Mexico although they are | | | | for instance look at the LA suburbs, |
| getting some good and needed rain this week | | | | Sacramento, Central Valley of Silicon Valley |
| in the interior of the country, it has been | | | | Refugees, San Diego and San Gabriel Valley, |
| quite a problem. This Hurricane season has | | | | lots of lawns to water and mow. Even in the |
| been lighter than anytime in the last 100 | | | | desert cities more homes, golf courses and |
| years and is not delivering the rain it | | | | lawns, with the increasing middle class, |
| could. As the El Nino cuts of the amount of | | | | which is not paying attention to where stuff |
| space that the hurricanes can operate in, it | | | | like water really comes from. The annual |
| may create a few larger systems where | | | | surveys of mountain snow depths and water |
| tropical depressions combine. The earth's | | | | levels of California's major rivers show that |
| supply of freshwater for use by humans and | | | | before the 1960s runoff in the late spring |
| natural ecosystems seems to be shrinking by | | | | and early summer amounted to a good 40 |
| the year. One-third of the world's population | | | | percent of the total runoff each year.Since |
| is living in "water stressed" regions in the | | | | the mid-1970s in LA, San Diego, Sacramento |
| World. As human population continues to grow, | | | | and the Bay Area, runoff during the late |
| so does the demand for more water. It is | | | | spring and early summer has dropped to barely |
| estimated that by the year 2025 nearly | | | | 30 percent of the annual total, he said. |
| one-half of the population will be living in | | | | Tracking California's changing climate record |
| "water stressed" regions or countries.The | | | | for many years. We are finding data that adds |
| NASA Satellite which sends information on | | | | to powerful evidence that the warming trend |
| river basins around the world using | | | | is real. However there maybe other |
| sophisticated computer models and | | | | explanations as well. Some which may be |
| geographical information systems is locating | | | | unbelievable. The problem of managing the |
| the areas that are most stressed. Among the | | | | state's water resources more rationally in |
| most stressed are China's Yellow River basin, | | | | view of the changing climate is urgent now. |
| Africa's Zambeze River basin, the Syr Darya | | | | We need detailed studies to decide what to |
| and Amu Darya River basins leading to | | | | do. Studies are a lot cheaper than floods. |
| Russia's Aral Sea and the Colorado River | | | | However I doubt anyone can disagree with the |
| basin. These are amongst the first serious | | | | thought of weather control research to solve |
| problems. This research is also being used by | | | | the water problem for people. Officials of |
| the World Water Commission; a government and | | | | the California Department of Water Resources |
| privately funded organization; goal to seek | | | | are starting to look at the effects of |
| global solutions to water problems. They of | | | | climate change as they develop the 2003 |
| course are using this data to change policy | | | | California Water Plan that state law requires |
| and over exaggerate much of the problems, | | | | the department to produce every five years. |
| however at the current rates we will see | | | | As I traveled last month from Reno NV to CA |
| significant and unfixable problems in these | | | | Sacramento are I looked at the Sierra summit |
| regions without control of the actual | | | | and there's no snow pack at all up there, |
| weather. We must look towards using the | | | | while the major reservoirs downstream are |
| technology we have to control the weather and | | | | full, places like Folsom Lake, the warming |
| make it rain every Monday and Thursday night. | | | | trend problem is just beginning, but it's |
| Water managers are recognizing that our | | | | certainly focusing the water authorities |
| nations water supply must be treated | | | | attention.The warming trend poses at least |
| cautiously. With a growing population, | | | | three increasing dangers: -- Severe lowland |
| erratic dry spells, and widespread pollution | | | | flooding as rains in the winter replace |
| of our aquatic environment, water consumption | | | | mountain snowfalls; -- Rising sea levels that |
| must be watched. The big problem is that | | | | reach into the Sacramento-San Joaquin River |
| people still see water as basically free and | | | | Delta and threaten century-old levees that |
| totally unlimited, which if you look at the | | | | must protect the rich croplands; -- The |
| Earth it would appear that way judging by the | | | | intrusion of salt into Delta waterways that |
| size of the oceans.Things are being done to | | | | disturbs both fisheries and the natural delta |
| reserve our supply, in the US we certainly | | | | ecology on which farmlands depend. The |
| take for granted the fresh water supply. Some | | | | Department of Water Resources hedges against |
| communities are using surplus water and gray | | | | these changes by developing a two-year state |
| water to replenish underground reservoirs | | | | water plan. I have read this and find it full |
| like in Tucson AZ, where water naturally | | | | of farm subsidies and bad data and guess by |
| accumulates but is at lower than normal | | | | experts similar to the crisis management team |
| levels. Scientists are looking at new | | | | brought in for Y2K, which never happened, |
| technologies to maximize such stores. Other | | | | although these are real, right now issues we |
| ideas range from setting up commercial | | | | need to look at the past for answers more |
| markets for water rights to forming huge snow | | | | than trying to predict the new future trends. |
| piles. Although these ideas are great | | | | The last such document in 1998 included |
| locally, and it provides local awareness it | | | | forecasts for the state's water supply and |
| will do little good. And there are a couple | | | | demand over the coming 20 years, and provided |
| of Canadian companies that use small ships to | | | | recommendations for dam building, flood |
| go and capture floating icebergs for fresh | | | | control, water management and conservation |
| water. California water planners face a | | | | measures. Now, the department of water |
| problem they never thought they'd encounter: | | | | planning is gearing up to draft the plan for |
| global warming is hitting the High Sierra | | | | 2003. The City of Los Angeles water planning |
| snow pack. And just how the planners cope | | | | dept and other and other experts will offer |
| with it could affect every city-dweller, | | | | the department's 60-member advisory committee |
| every farmer and every water-using industry | | | | the latest evidence that the warming problem |
| in the state for years to come and every car | | | | could grow steadily worse.The Water |
| wash. Scientists are in broad agreement that | | | | Department has a 60-member advisory committee |
| the world's climate is steadily warming and | | | | made up of "stakeholders" -- the people most |
| even President Bush and his staff have | | | | affected by water policies like agricultural |
| conceded that we should be looking at these | | | | water districts, urban water departments, |
| issues with more scrutiny-- whether due to | | | | food processing industries and public |
| "greenhouse gas" emissions from industry and | | | | utilities. All provide input for the state's |
| automobilesor to natural variability. is | | | | water planners. The committee meets every two |
| evidence that it is already altering the | | | | months or so for the next two years until the |
| annual ebb and flow of the California state's | | | | final plan is released. future will be all |
| water supplies, of course realizing that | | | | about sustainability and we must watch that |
| liars figure and figures lie. It's a matter | | | | this term is not misused in the future for |
| of "more rain, less snow," and this is El | | | | political gain or Liberal Political gain, |
| Nino which will fill up CA reservoirs when | | | | which will upset the balance. Wash guys |
| they do not need the water and the snow pack | | | | realize the need to understand the water |
| that comes and fills things up in the Spring | | | | supply and where and why it is needed. We |
| will not come, then La Nina comes and we have | | | | have been through droughts in the past and |
| another drought in CA, it is not going to | | | | will in the future. Some people ask where did |
| help us. This happened in 1984 too. | | | | the Indians go who inhabited they villages |
| California's water supply largely depends on | | | | and cities and temple and structures of the |
| the winter snow pack in the high mountains | | | | past? I believe they went in search of |
| that must feed the state's lowlands the rest | | | | greener pastures and water. The problem of |
| of the year. A major change is already | | | | tomorrow is distribution flow. |